Wednesday 11 February 2009

Japan.

Japan was one of the major economies for several decades but during last 20 years this strong economy has faced some really difficult problems. One of them is high savings ratio and low consumer spending. If you read this properly, you will notice that although households' savings ratio has decreased significantly (from 25% to 3%), consumer spending didn't grow much.  

It  may seem strange because as we know savings and spending have negative relation. So probably some other reason had an effect on consumer spending.
Consumer expenditure is influenced by:

  • Real Disposable Income
  • Wealth
  • Distribution of income
  • Savings
  • Inflation
  • Interest Rates
  • The age structure of the population
  • Expectations and consumer confidence

These major factors affect consumer spending. By the statistics,
GDP per capita on Japan have increased:
Japan - GDP - per <span class=capita (PPP) (US$)">
While inflation was closed to zero:
Japan - Inflation rate (consumer prices) (%)


So real income was increasing, savings were decreasing,interest rates were close to 0:

For the reasons given above, consumer spending is supposed to be quite high, but in this particular situation consumers' confidence plays the major role. During 1990s Japan was stuck in the crisis so people lost confidence in the economical situation. Now most of the demand-side policies just do not work. This happens mostly because of

  • deflation(people suppose that prices are falling and then they do not buy products,therefore producers have to cut prices even more)
  • negative equity(because even though interest rates are decreasing, prices are decreasing faster)
  • low government spending(it's better to say "wrongly targeted".

Consumption is supposed to be the major component of the aggregate demand and in my humble opinion the consumption will decrease even more in the next 2-3 years(still because of the lack of confidence and panic that was made by the World Crisis). As the result of this, there will be a dramatical fall of the aggregate demand.




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